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2023-03-27

Can Zero-Coupon Bond Yield Curve Predict Economic Growth?-The Case of China

Since China's economic reform in 1978, the country's economic system has foreseen rapid evolvements, particularly in issuing debt securities by the Chinese central government to financing its drastic economic growth (Loo & Lqbal, 2019). This research study examines the zero-coupon bond yield curve's predictive power on China's GDP growth rate by adopting the Nelson-Siegel (1987) dynamic yield curve model. This research study adopts various approaches to refining the Nelson-Siegel (1987) model to enhance its predictive power on future economic activities, drawing upon the modifications undertaken by Diebold & Li's (2006) study to examining the constructed yield curve in accordance with the three latent factors of level, slope and curvature of the entire yield curve. A 67 period of zero-coupon bond yields is gathered between Q3 2002 and Q1 2019 quarterly from zero-coupon bond maturities of 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, finding that all types of zero-coupon bond maturities to exhibit similar yield curve movements across short, intermediary and long term durations. A multiple regression model was used to examine the correlation coefficient between the three latent factors and China's GDP, finding a significant relationship in the slope factor. A relationship was also found between the level and slope factors with a significance of 0.854, whereby the average rates between the two variables were calculated under the augmented Dicky Fuller test to ensure all factors are at stationary states to enhance the accuracy of future testing.

Author - Chanaphon Sakkapalangkul
Journal - Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development

Source - https://iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/view/55153